Capitalytics

**Regression for 20-year Treasury Yield**

	Dependent variable (+/- SE):

	20-year Treasury Yield

Constant	-0.481 (+/- 0.219)
	p = 0.051^*
Moody's AAA Curve	-0.799 (+/- 0.121)
	p = 0.00004^***
Real GDP growth	0.026 (+/- 0.005)
	p = 0.0003^***
Nominal GDP growth	-0.027 (+/- 0.005)
	p = 0.0002^***
Real disposable income growth	0.003 (+/- 0.001)
	p = 0.007^***
30-year Mortgate Rate	-0.265 (+/- 0.049)
	p = 0.0002^***
Home Price Index	0.005 (+/- 0.001)
	p = 0.00001^***
Market Volatility Index	0.011 (+/- 0.002)
	p = 0.0002^***
LN_Market Volatility Index	-0.220 (+/- 0.047)
	p = 0.001^***
US Avg Retail Gasoline Price ($-gal; all grades, all formulations)	-0.072 (+/- 0.016)
	p = 0.001^***
30-year Treasury Yield	3.360 (+/- 0.374)
	p = 0.00001^***
10-year Treasury Yield	2.915 (+/- 0.486)
	p = 0.0001^***
LN_10-year Treasury Yield	-6.352 (+/- 1.003)
	p = 0.0001^***
LN_1-month Treasury Yield	-0.438 (+/- 0.061)
	p = 0.00002^***
LN_7-year Treasury Yield	-3.559 (+/- 0.536)
	p = 0.00004^***
3-month Treasury Yield	-0.161 (+/- 0.020)
	p = 0.00001^***
5-year Treasury Yield	-0.902 (+/- 0.173)
	p = 0.0003^***
LN_5-year Treasury Yield	3.247 (+/- 0.526)
	p = 0.0001^***
6-month Treasury Yield	-1.415 (+/- 0.183)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_6-month Treasury Yield	1.605 (+/- 0.240)
	p = 0.00004^***
3-year Treasury Yield	-1.816 (+/- 0.292)
	p = 0.0001^***
LN_3-year Treasury Yield	4.225 (+/- 0.584)
	p = 0.00002^***
1-year Treasury Yield	2.353 (+/- 0.311)
	p = 0.00002^***
LN_1-year Treasury Yield	-2.883 (+/- 0.384)
	p = 0.00002^***
1-year Treasury Yield_2	-0.158 (+/- 0.021)
	p = 0.00002^***
6-month Treasury Yield_2	0.138 (+/- 0.018)
	p = 0.00002^***
7-year Treasury Yield_2	0.266 (+/- 0.038)
	p = 0.00003^***
10-year Treasury Yield_2	-0.109 (+/- 0.021)
	p = 0.0004^***
30-year Treasury Yield_2	-0.268 (+/- 0.041)
	p = 0.00005^***

Observations	40
R²	1.000
Adjusted R²	1.000
Residual Std. Error	0.013 (df = 11)
F Statistic	11,892.140^*** (df = 28; 11)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01