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Regression for Unemployment Rate
Dependent variable (+/- SE):
Unemployment Rate
Constant4.601 (+/- 1.274)
p = 0.006***
US Fed Reserve O-N Loan Rate1.156 (+/- 0.278)
p = 0.003***
Moody's BAA Curve-0.511 (+/- 0.074)
p = 0.0001***
Real GDP growth-0.198 (+/- 0.012)
p = 0.00000***
Nominal GDP growth0.111 (+/- 0.011)
p = 0.00001***
Real disposable income growth0.007 (+/- 0.001)
p = 0.0001***
BBB corporate yield-0.919 (+/- 0.107)
p = 0.00002***
30-year Mortgate Rate-0.384 (+/- 0.109)
p = 0.007***
Prime Rate0.865 (+/- 0.107)
p = 0.00002***
Dow Total Stock Market Index-0.00004 (+/- 0.00001)
p = 0.0001***
Home Price Index-0.010 (+/- 0.002)
p = 0.0004***
Market Volatility Index0.008 (+/- 0.001)
p = 0.00002***
US Avg Retail Gasoline Price ($-gal; all grades, all formulations)0.266 (+/- 0.057)
p = 0.002***
30-year Treasury Yield33.463 (+/- 2.967)
p = 0.00001***
LN_30-year Treasury Yield-62.238 (+/- 4.912)
p = 0.00000***
20-year Treasury Yield-6.419 (+/- 0.817)
p = 0.00003***
1-month Treasury Yield-1.845 (+/- 0.278)
p = 0.0001***
LN_1-month Treasury Yield-1.659 (+/- 0.064)
p = 0.000***
7-year Treasury Yield-19.246 (+/- 0.597)
p = 0.000***
LN_7-year Treasury Yield47.792 (+/- 1.327)
p = 0.000***
3-month Treasury Yield-0.863 (+/- 0.115)
p = 0.00004***
LN_5-year Treasury Yield2.669 (+/- 0.104)
p = 0.000***
6-month Treasury Yield1.714 (+/- 0.274)
p = 0.0002***
LN_6-month Treasury Yield2.323 (+/- 0.068)
p = 0.000***
3-year Treasury Yield8.732 (+/- 0.426)
p = 0.000***
LN_3-year Treasury Yield-18.022 (+/- 0.409)
p = 0.000***
1-year Treasury Yield-1.654 (+/- 0.398)
p = 0.003***
3-month Treasury Yield_20.114 (+/- 0.014)
p = 0.00002***
1-month Treasury Yield_2-0.061 (+/- 0.014)
p = 0.002***
20-year Treasury Yield_20.952 (+/- 0.121)
p = 0.00003***
30-year Treasury Yield_2-1.895 (+/- 0.224)
p = 0.00002***
Observations40
R21.000
Adjusted R21.000
Residual Std. Error0.034 (df = 9)
F Statistic3,346.355*** (df = 30; 9)
Note:*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01