Regression for Unemployment Rate
|
| Dependent variable (+/- SE): |
| |
| Unemployment Rate |
|
| Constant | 4.601 (+/- 1.274) |
| p = 0.006*** |
| US Fed Reserve O-N Loan Rate | 1.156 (+/- 0.278) |
| p = 0.003*** |
| Moody's BAA Curve | -0.511 (+/- 0.074) |
| p = 0.0001*** |
| Real GDP growth | -0.198 (+/- 0.012) |
| p = 0.00000*** |
| Nominal GDP growth | 0.111 (+/- 0.011) |
| p = 0.00001*** |
| Real disposable income growth | 0.007 (+/- 0.001) |
| p = 0.0001*** |
| BBB corporate yield | -0.919 (+/- 0.107) |
| p = 0.00002*** |
| 30-year Mortgate Rate | -0.384 (+/- 0.109) |
| p = 0.007*** |
| Prime Rate | 0.865 (+/- 0.107) |
| p = 0.00002*** |
| Dow Total Stock Market Index | -0.00004 (+/- 0.00001) |
| p = 0.0001*** |
| Home Price Index | -0.010 (+/- 0.002) |
| p = 0.0004*** |
| Market Volatility Index | 0.008 (+/- 0.001) |
| p = 0.00002*** |
| US Avg Retail Gasoline Price ($-gal; all grades, all formulations) | 0.266 (+/- 0.057) |
| p = 0.002*** |
| 30-year Treasury Yield | 33.463 (+/- 2.967) |
| p = 0.00001*** |
| LN_30-year Treasury Yield | -62.238 (+/- 4.912) |
| p = 0.00000*** |
| 20-year Treasury Yield | -6.419 (+/- 0.817) |
| p = 0.00003*** |
| 1-month Treasury Yield | -1.845 (+/- 0.278) |
| p = 0.0001*** |
| LN_1-month Treasury Yield | -1.659 (+/- 0.064) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| 7-year Treasury Yield | -19.246 (+/- 0.597) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| LN_7-year Treasury Yield | 47.792 (+/- 1.327) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| 3-month Treasury Yield | -0.863 (+/- 0.115) |
| p = 0.00004*** |
| LN_5-year Treasury Yield | 2.669 (+/- 0.104) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| 6-month Treasury Yield | 1.714 (+/- 0.274) |
| p = 0.0002*** |
| LN_6-month Treasury Yield | 2.323 (+/- 0.068) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| 3-year Treasury Yield | 8.732 (+/- 0.426) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| LN_3-year Treasury Yield | -18.022 (+/- 0.409) |
| p = 0.000*** |
| 1-year Treasury Yield | -1.654 (+/- 0.398) |
| p = 0.003*** |
| 3-month Treasury Yield_2 | 0.114 (+/- 0.014) |
| p = 0.00002*** |
| 1-month Treasury Yield_2 | -0.061 (+/- 0.014) |
| p = 0.002*** |
| 20-year Treasury Yield_2 | 0.952 (+/- 0.121) |
| p = 0.00003*** |
| 30-year Treasury Yield_2 | -1.895 (+/- 0.224) |
| p = 0.00002*** |
|
| Observations | 40 |
| R2 | 1.000 |
| Adjusted R2 | 1.000 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.034 (df = 9) |
| F Statistic | 3,346.355*** (df = 30; 9) |
|
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 |