Capitalytics

**Regression for Real GDP growth**

	Dependent variable (+/- SE):

	Real GDP growth

Constant	-106.710 (+/- 7.323)
	p = 0.00003^***
Moody's AAA Curve	29.771 (+/- 1.228)
	p = 0.00001^***
Moody's BAA Curve	-13.762 (+/- 0.508)
	p = 0.00001^***
Nominal GDP growth	1.872 (+/- 0.060)
	p = 0.00000^***
Real disposable income growth	2.288 (+/- 0.133)
	p = 0.00002^***
Nominal disposable income growth	-2.378 (+/- 0.138)
	p = 0.00002^***
Unemployment Rate	6.972 (+/- 0.518)
	p = 0.00005^***
CPI Inflation Rate	-0.800 (+/- 0.056)
	p = 0.00003^***
BBB corporate yield	10.363 (+/- 0.681)
	p = 0.00003^***
30-year Mortgate Rate	6.977 (+/- 0.410)
	p = 0.00002^***
Prime Rate	-8.670 (+/- 0.631)
	p = 0.00004^***
Dow Total Stock Market Index	0.001 (+/- 0.00003)
	p = 0.00002^***
Home Price Index	-0.041 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.0001^***
Market Volatility Index	-0.580 (+/- 0.031)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_Market Volatility Index	12.911 (+/- 0.661)
	p = 0.00001^***
US Avg Retail Gasoline Price ($-gal; all grades, all formulations)	-1.593 (+/- 0.133)
	p = 0.0001^***
30-year Treasury Yield	-33.959 (+/- 1.649)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_20-year Treasury Yield	102.118 (+/- 5.726)
	p = 0.00002^***
10-year Treasury Yield	-57.719 (+/- 3.725)
	p = 0.00003^***
LN_10-year Treasury Yield	120.472 (+/- 8.339)
	p = 0.00003^***
1-month Treasury Yield	13.019 (+/- 0.772)
	p = 0.00002^***
LN_1-month Treasury Yield	24.724 (+/- 1.743)
	p = 0.00004^***
7-year Treasury Yield	71.437 (+/- 4.874)
	p = 0.00003^***
LN_7-year Treasury Yield	-199.010 (+/- 13.011)
	p = 0.00003^***
3-month Treasury Yield	5.739 (+/- 0.452)
	p = 0.0001^***
5-year Treasury Yield	26.356 (+/- 1.966)
	p = 0.00005^***
LN_5-year Treasury Yield	-77.922 (+/- 5.757)
	p = 0.00004^***
6-month Treasury Yield	-31.699 (+/- 1.572)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_6-month Treasury Yield	-61.201 (+/- 4.312)
	p = 0.00004^***
LN_3-year Treasury Yield	22.649 (+/- 2.110)
	p = 0.0002^***
1-year Treasury Yield	12.079 (+/- 0.948)
	p = 0.0001^***
LN_1-year Treasury Yield	68.168 (+/- 4.958)
	p = 0.00004^***
1-year Treasury Yield_2	1.245 (+/- 0.105)
	p = 0.0001^***
3-year Treasury Yield_2	-4.089 (+/- 0.233)
	p = 0.00002^***
20-year Treasury Yield_2	-1.674 (+/- 0.166)
	p = 0.0002^***

Observations	40
R²	1.000
Adjusted R²	1.000
Residual Std. Error	0.063 (df = 5)
F Statistic	16,268.450^*** (df = 34; 5)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01