Capitalytics

**Regression for 6-month Treasury Yield**

	Dependent variable (+/- SE):

	6-month Treasury Yield

Constant	-1.766 (+/- 0.061)
	p = 0.00001^***
SP500 Stock Price Index	-0.0001 (+/- 0.00000)
	p = 0.00001^***
Moody's AAA Curve	0.602 (+/- 0.011)
	p = 0.00000^***
Moody's BAA Curve	-0.234 (+/- 0.007)
	p = 0.00001^***
Real GDP growth	0.010 (+/- 0.0002)
	p = 0.00001^***
Real disposable income growth	0.009 (+/- 0.001)
	p = 0.0001^***
Nominal disposable income growth	-0.008 (+/- 0.001)
	p = 0.0001^***
Unemployment Rate	0.059 (+/- 0.002)
	p = 0.00001^***
BBB corporate yield	0.077 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.00004^***
30-year Mortgate Rate	0.189 (+/- 0.006)
	p = 0.00001^***
Prime Rate	-0.026 (+/- 0.003)
	p = 0.001^***
Dow Total Stock Market Index	0.00001 (+/- 0.00000)
	p = 0.00001^***
Home Price Index	0.001 (+/- 0.0001)
	p = 0.001^***
Commercial Real Estate Price Index	0.002 (+/- 0.0001)
	p = 0.00001^***
Market Volatility Index	-0.011 (+/- 0.0002)
	p = 0.00000^***
LN_Market Volatility Index	0.254 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.00000^***
US Avg Retail Gasoline Price ($-gal; all grades, all formulations)	0.016 (+/- 0.002)
	p = 0.002^***
20-year Treasury Yield	-2.322 (+/- 0.076)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_20-year Treasury Yield	4.296 (+/- 0.132)
	p = 0.00001^***
10-year Treasury Yield	0.471 (+/- 0.024)
	p = 0.00005^***
1-month Treasury Yield	0.672 (+/- 0.008)
	p = 0.00000^***
LN_1-month Treasury Yield	0.112 (+/- 0.005)
	p = 0.00003^***
LN_7-year Treasury Yield	-2.055 (+/- 0.039)
	p = 0.00000^***
5-year Treasury Yield	-1.067 (+/- 0.024)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_5-year Treasury Yield	0.323 (+/- 0.012)
	p = 0.00002^***
3-year Treasury Yield	1.175 (+/- 0.026)
	p = 0.00001^***
1-year Treasury Yield	0.236 (+/- 0.015)
	p = 0.0002^***
LN_1-year Treasury Yield	-0.057 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.0002^***
1-year Treasury Yield_2	0.046 (+/- 0.002)
	p = 0.00001^***
3-year Treasury Yield_2	-0.160 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.00001^***
5-year Treasury Yield_2	0.100 (+/- 0.003)
	p = 0.00001^***
3-month Treasury Yield_2	-0.008 (+/- 0.001)
	p = 0.0002^***
7-year Treasury Yield_2	0.074 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.00004^***
1-month Treasury Yield_2	-0.025 (+/- 0.001)
	p = 0.00001^***
10-year Treasury Yield_2	-0.070 (+/- 0.004)
	p = 0.0001^***
20-year Treasury Yield_2	0.100 (+/- 0.005)
	p = 0.00004^***

Observations	40
R²	1.000
Adjusted R²	1.000
Residual Std. Error	0.001 (df = 4)
F Statistic	3,499,195.000^*** (df = 35; 4)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01