Personal Perception Report for Nov 21, 2024

The Surveys of Consumers are conducted by the Survey Research Center, under the direction of Richard T. Curtin, at the University of Michigan; the surveys have long stressed the important influence of consumer spending and saving decisions in determining the course of the national economy.

The Surveys of Consumers have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy. The Index of Consumer Expectations, produced by the Surveys of Consumers, is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. The inclusion of data from the Surveys of Consumers by the Commerce Department is a significant confirmation of its capabilities for understanding and forecasting changes in the national economy. Each series included in the composite Index of Leading Indicators is selected because of its performance on six important characteristics: economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability. No other consumer survey meets these rigorous criteria.

The following charts reflect The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectation Index. These indexes are consumer confidence indexed published monthly by the University of Michigan. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is another key indicator designed to illustrate the average U.S. consumer’s confidence level; this indicator is important to retailers, economists, and investors, and its rise and fall has historically helped predict economic expansions and contractions. The Inflation Expectation measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Consumer Sentiment

Inflation Expectation